Nov 1, 2011 N. Illinois-Toledo

Well, last night went about as well as it could for me (gambling wise). Thanks to Marmalarde (aka Phillip Rivers), the Chiefs covered. I'm not sure how many times the Chargers turned it over, but it sure seemed like they were pretty broken up by Kim Kardashian's divorce. The Chargers should have covered this game easily. The Chiefs could barely get a first down after the first quarter and the Chargers were perpetually on the Chiefs side of the field. I guess that's how football goes sometimes, which fucking pisses me off normally. Last night, I was gonna go 1 for 2; it just so happened that the 1 was worth 2 units. A PROFIT! On to tonight's lone game, Northern Illinois vs Toledo.

Toledo -8; Over/Under 67

I think that most people who follow college football remembers that Toledo came very close to beating Ohio State earlier this season. Other than playing the big dog in the state, the Rockets have played other tough opponents. They were prison raped by Boise, which happens to most teams who play Boise. However, they took Syracuse to OT, only to lose by 3. Now, that Cuse team is not the same as last year but they are still a school hailing from an AQ conference. Describing the tough early schedule for Toledo is my way of saying "This Toledo team is resilient."

To their credit, N. Illinois hasn't played an easy schedule either. An early blowout at Wisconsin didn't deter them from playing Kansas very hard the next week in Lawrence. Although Kansas has shown themselves to be one of the worst teams in a BCS conference, you have to admire N. Illinois moxie in scheduling a couple tough opponents. But moxie isn't going to take the Huskies very far in this game.

In a big matchup (for the MAC) last year, N. Illinois ruined Toledo's chances of making it to the MAC Championship. This is a revenge game for the Rockets. Yes, N. Illinois has a formidable ground attack but that is all they have. Their defense gives up 32 points a game, on average. Toledo's offense is averaging 36 points a game and is very balanced. The Rockets have been using a two QB system all year but both of them have combined to only throw 4 INT's. Toledo's defense has only been giving up 20 points on average to MAC opponents but none of those teams possess the offensive attack of the Huskies. I expect N. Illinois to score around 30 but, make no mistake, Toledo will score well into the 40's or more. I expect Toledo to exact vengeance upon the Huskies for last year and win easily by two touchdowns. Toledo is the class of this league and they will show it again tonight.

Pick: Toledo -8 (4 units)
Over 67 (0.5 units)

YTD: 1-1 (+1 unit; +$90)

WTF NFL!? Prelude to Chargers-Chiefs

As awesome as I am at betting on games, it's been a pretty rough couple weeks for yours truly. Throughout the first few weeks of the NFL season, anyone could win by taking the favorites. This PISSED ME OFF because everyone thought they were the new Brandon Lang. Per usual (for Vegas), oddsmakers adjusted the next weeks' lines accordingly, allowing underdogs a better chance to cover. But as I watched the different games yesterday, a thought hit me like my brain was Chris Brown's girlfriend. WHAT THE FUCK!!!!!?

I have no idea of what to make of any team in the NFL at the midway point of the season. And that's exactly what the NFL wants. Over the last decade, the rule changes that are allowing for unprecedented passing statistics have been about one thing: parity. The league loves that any team can basically beat any other team, no matter whether playing at home or on the road. Some would say that this is the beauty of the NFL but those people obviously don't have a gambling problem. As a betting man, I would like to have a firm grasp on who each team is and their talent level (or lack thereof) by this point in the season. The last two weeks have completed demolished any feel I had for who is any good. Green Bay seems to be the best but everyone else agrees with that statement so any game they play has the line skewed high in favor of them. I could fill the second tier with about half the league right now. If Pittsburgh and New England played again next week, could anyone say definitively that Pittsburgh would win again. Fuck and no!

As the title suggests, all of these pointless ramblings are trying to explain that I will be taking the Chiefs +3.5 tonight for no particular reason. I could spend a lot more time and words attempting to persuade myself (and, hopefully, others) that the Chiefs tonight are a good bet, but why waste my time and energy? I'm sure they're are some advanced stats that would suggest otherwise. However, my counter-point would be "who the fuck knows?" The Chargers are an anomaly, the Chiefs are an anomaly, the whole god damn league is an anomaly. I'll take the home anomaly gettin the points.

Chiefs +3.5 (2 units)
Over 45 (1 unit)